The Growing Impact of Armed Insurgency in the Northeast: Is Peace Possible?

The insurgency of the Northeast of India is not a new one it is a centuries old bleeding wound which the Indian state has been unable to heal. Since the hills of Manipur to the jungles of Nagaland militant groups have been taking hostages of entire communities, robbing the populace of their resources, and down time after time, lighting a cigarette to the authority of a democratic republic. By 2024, the Northeast of India is still among the militarized civilian territories in the world and the question is no longer about peace it is about responsibility.

The Scale of Armed Insurgency in the Northeast: Numbers That Cannot Be Ignored

The human price of this insurgency is mind-blowing. With data that has been summarized by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), an excess of 25,000 lives have been taken in the Northeast since the 1950s that encompasses the lives of civilians, security officials, and the terrorists themselves.

The main facts that reveal the gravity of the crisis:

• Manipur alone recorded over 1,500 insurgency-related deaths between 2000 and 2023.
• At least 38 insurgent groups are also active in the area as of 2024.
• The Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) has been in operation in the Northeast in over 60 years.
• India – In the past 20 years, India has spent around 80,000 + crore USD in the counter-insurgency efforts in the Northeast.

According to a report by The Indian Express, the peace talks with other groups have stalled on each occasion casting serious doubts on political goodwill and strategic honesty on both part.

Who Benefits from Prolonged Insurgency?

There is a painful and tough question that has to be raised: to whom is it useful to continue this conflict? The solution, unfortunately, lies in various stakeholders and does not consist of every one of them with guns.

Militant Leadership and the Economy of Violence

A lot of rebel groups have evolved into extortion rackets out of a political movement. Organizations such as the NSCN-IM, ULFA(I) and other Manipur based groups raise crores of rupees in the form of taxes to contractors, businesses and even government projects. The very Parliamentary Standing Committee of the Indian government has observed that the development funds in the Northeast are being lent off regularly in the form of militant ‘protection fees.’

Political Exploitation of Ethnic Divisions

Ethnic fault lines have been exploited severally by local and national politicians to cement vote banks. The Meitei-Kuki Manipur conflict (20232024) that claimed the lives of more than 200 people and displaced more than 60,000 others was not just an insurgency issue, it was a governance failure which was driven by decades of political apathy and intentional polarisation.

AFSPA: A Necessary Evil or a Shield for Impunity?

One of the most debated laws in the Indian democracy is the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). It was passed in 1958 and grants the security agencies the authority to make arrests without warrants, shoot on suspicion and purport almost complete immunity against prosecution.

In its historical case decision of 2016, Extra Judicial Execution Victim Families Association (EEVFAM) vs. Union of India, the Supreme Court of India established the presence of at least 1,528 possible fake encounters in the state of Manipur alone. However, there is not a single conviction in these cases as at 2025. This is not rule of law it is a culture of impunity in military khaki.

The Indian state cannot at the same time boast of peace that it is offering protection to individuals who are accused of extrajudicial murders. This inherent paradox discredits the masses and populistly fuels the insurgency enlistment discourse more effectively than any militia pamphlet.

Peace Talks That Go Nowhere: A Recurring National Embarrassment

India was at peace talks with NSCN-IM since 1997 -almost 28 years of peace talks with no definite conclusion. The Naga peace process has turned out to be a beacon of ineptitude of the government or more so, intentional procrastination, to sustain political clout over an agitated populace.

Like negotiations with ULFA(I) in Assam started in 2011, then collapsed in 2017, then restarted reluctantly, with no agreement on the main demand of sovereignty. Meanwhile, Assam keeps financing a surrendered militant rehabilitation program which has set the state back to the tune of ₹500 crore without apparent effect on levels of peace on the ground.

• The trend is alarmingly regular:
• Ceasefire agreements get signed.
• Camp and funds are assigned to militants.
• Talks drag on for years.
• Violence resurfaces. The cycle repeats.

The Development Deficit: Northeast India’s Biggest Grievance

No sincere discourse of armed insurgency in the Northeast can be complete without the fact that India has been systematic underdeveloping the area. Over decades, infrastructures, medical services, education, and connectivity in such states were far below the national standard at a dangerous level.

Based on the reports of the ministry of development of North Eastern Region (MDoNER), consider the following facts:

• Even in 2020, more than 35% of the villages in Northeast were not connected by all-weather roads.
• Manipur, Nagaland and Meghalaya Per capita income in Manipur, Nagaland and Meghalaya was still far below the national average as of the 2010s.
• The percentages of unemployment in the Northeast are always higher (5-8 above the national average) which is fertile soil in recruiting militants.

It cannot be surprising that young men, who have no prospects, and the Indian state has not been able to offer them jobs, roads, and basic dignity, should resort to a gun rather than a textbook.

Is Peace Possible? An Honest Assessment

The Northeast can, but not inevitably, have peace, and the record of the Indian state is hardly encouraging. All the major conflicts experienced in the region would have been de-escalated previously through improved governance, economic inclusion, and authentic political discourse. New Delhi instead has on many occasions opted to use military repression as the initial option instead of the final option.

To have real peace, India has to:

•Stop the culture of impunity in AFSPA and prosecute the reported cases of fabricated encounters.

Set hard timelines and clear benchmarks on any peace negotiations going on.

•Consider economic development as the main counter-insurgency contribution, not as a subsequent measure.

•Staple the civil society, women and the local communities not only the armed factions in the peace processes.

Conclusion: A Nation Cannot Afford to Ignore Its Own People

The armed insurgency in the Northeast is not unsolvable it is an unaddressed one.Half-measures, abandoned promises/political expediency of the last five decades have turned the security challenge into a civilisational failure.India is a country that is being introduced to the world as a new democracy but millions of its people in Northeast are being subjected to living under the gun.

It is high time to cease to regard the Northeast as a tribal buffer and begin to regard it as what it is the heartland of a diversified, multi-ethnic and long-suffering Indian democracy. Less than this is not a peace process. It is a betrayal.